Predicting the Probability of Graduating after Four, Six, and Ten Years. Research Report.Report as inadecuate

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This study, which is a companion to a study on 10-year enrollment and graduation patterns for new freshmen and transfers, sought to quantify how much more likely college students were to graduate if they were transfers, were enrolled continuously, were mostly full-time, and began their academic careers with good first-semester grade point averages (GPAs). The number of credits transferred was included to help explore why transfers were more likely to graduate. Age, gender, and ethnicity were used to control for differences between and within freshman and transfer groups. Graduation was checked at three points (4-, 6-, and 10-years). The study was based on 2,459 Boise State University (Idaho) students who entered in fall 1989; 1,692 were new freshmen and 767 were new transfers. The study found that transfer students were more likely to graduate than new freshmen, with the most important variables in predicting graduation being full-time enrollment and first semester grade point average. Discontinuous enrollment reduced the odds of graduation. For each semester of credits transferred, students significantly improved their odds of graduating. Age, gender, and ethnicity had little effect on predicting graduation. Appended is information on the logistic regression model. (SM)

Descriptors: Academic Persistence, College Freshmen, College Graduates, College Students, Dropout Research, Enrollment, Full Time Students, Grade Point Average, Graduation, Higher Education, Predictor Variables, School Holding Power, Statistical Analysis, Student Attrition, Time to Degree, Transfer Students, Withdrawal (Education)

Author: Belcheir, Marcia J.


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