An Assessment of the Canadian Federal-Provincial Crop Production Insurance Program under Future Climate Change Scenarios in Ontario Reportar como inadecuado




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Research and observations indicate climate change has and will have an impact on Ontario field crop production. Little research has been done to forecast how climate change might influence the Canadian Federal-Provincial Crop Insurance program, including its premium rates and reserve fund balances, in the future decades. This paper proposes using a mixture of two normal yield probability distribution model to model crop yieldconditions under hypothetical climate change scenarios. Then superimposes Crop Insurance premium rate and reserve fund balance calculations onto the yield model to forecasttheir trends and fluctuation situations in the future decades. We find under the scenarioswhere climate change alters the probability of a lower yield year occurring and whereclimate change alters yield averages, both have more significant impacts on premiumrates and reserve fund balances, compared to the scenarios where climate change altersyield variations. The results of this research will help Agricorp Ltd. identify the likelyfrequency and magnitude of both insurance premium rate fluctuations and reserve fund balance fluctuations under different climate change scenarios. Therefore the results canbe used to help Agricorp Ltd. identify and forecast both premium rate fluctuation riskand reserve fund liquidity risk.

Subject(s): Crop Production/Industries

Environmental Economics and Policy

International Relations/Trade

Production Economics

Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies

Issue Date: 2013

Publication Type: Conference Paper/ Presentation

PURL Identifier: http://purl.umn.edu/151213

Total Pages: 37

Series Statement: Paper

3224

Record appears in: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association (AAEA) > 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C.





Autor: Li, Shuang ; Ker, Alan P.

Fuente: http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/151213?ln=en



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