Interpreting 12th-Graders NAEP-Scaled Mathematics Performance Using High School Predictors and Postsecondary Outcomes from the National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988 NELS:88. Statistical Analysis Report. NCES 2007-328Reportar como inadecuado

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National Center for Education Statistics

The search for an understandable reporting format has led the National Assessment Governing Board to explore the possibility of measuring and interpreting student performance on the 12th-grade National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP), the Nation's Report Card, in terms of readiness for college, the workplace, and the military. This report explores using the 1992 NAEP-scaled mathematics scores in conjunction with a wider spectrum of NELS:88 12th-grade cross-sectional and longitudinal data elements. Results include a NELS:88 12th-grade mathematics score expressed on the NAEP scale. NELS:88 student and parent survey data, as well as data both from high school and postsecondary transcripts, are used to explore what achievement on the NAEP mathematics scale might mean relative to both student, family, and high school factors as well as later education outcomes. Socioeconomic Status (SES) was positively associated with NELS:88 NAEP scaled mathematics performance: NELS:88 12th-graders from higher SES families achieved higher levels of proficiency and only one-tenth of 1 percent of seniors in the lowest SES quarter reached the NAEP Advanced level. NELS:88 seniors whose educational expectations were to attain a bachelor's degree or higher had a better understanding of mathematics than seniors with lesser educational expectations. Regarding antecedents to NAEP-Scaled NELS:88 Performance, approximately 91 percent of the students scoring in the lowest quarter of the NELS:88 8th-grade achievement distribution had a below-Basic NELS:88 12th-grade NAEP-scaled score; of those who scored in the top 8th-grade mathematics quarter in 8th grade, 44 percent were at the Proficient or Advanced levels of NAEP-scaled achievement as seniors. A majority of Proficient and above NELS:88 performers on the 1992 NAEP mathematics scale also maintained an "A" average in mathematics throughout high school. Of those who completed no more than non-academic Mathematics, 95 percent scored belowBasic. Of seniors who completed calculus, 55 percent scored at the Proficient level, and 13 percent at Advanced. The report also explored the relationship between NELS:88 NAEP-scaled mathematics performance and postsecondary education outcomes that include: (1) postsecondary attendance 2 years after scheduled high school graduation; (2) highest degree attained 8 years after scheduled high school graduation); and (3) selectivity of first postsecondary school attended. For those with NAEP-scaled performance at less than Basic, some 46 percent had had no postsecondary attendance 2 years later in contrast to 98 percent of those who scored at Advanced having entered a postsecondary institution. Eight years following scheduled graduation, over 91 percent of NELS:88 seniors at the Advanced level for NAEP-scaled mathematics performance had earned a bachelor's degree or higher, compared to 18 percent of the below-Basic group, 50 percent of those at Basic, and 79 percent of those at the Proficient level. With respect to selectivity of institution first attended, findings showed that of examinees who scored at the NAEP Advanced mathematics level in NELS:88 in 1992, 72 percent had enrolled in either highly selective or selective (40 percent) postsecondary institutions. Of those who scored at Basic or below, about 1 percent of each of these two groups enrolled in a highly selective institution, while 9 percent of those at the Proficient level did so. The vantage point of the NELS:88 perspectives may allow the interpretation of the NAEP achievement levels and scale scores to be extended and deepened. Apart from this special reference to NAEP metrics, the substantive conclusions of the report confirm past research using the NELS:88 database rather than provide novel or unique findings, and the NAEP-scaled score does not uncover relationships or conclusions that could not already be observed using the NELS:88 scale scores and the NELS:88 proficiency levels. The primary contribution of the NAEP-scaled score is to help interpret the NAEP achievement levels in their relationship to a wider set of variables, including longitudinal data. The secondary contribution of the NAEP-scaled mathematics score is a benefit to NELS:88, expressing some of its conclusions in a NAEP metric that has become a familiar yardstick for measuring achievement. Two appendixes are included: (A) Technical Notes and Glossary; and (B) Standard Error Tables. (Contains 29 footnotes, 2 figures, and 25 tables.)

Descriptors: Student Evaluation, School Readiness, Outcomes of Education, Grade 12, Mathematics Achievement, Predictor Variables, Postsecondary Education, Longitudinal Studies, Family Influence, Socioeconomic Influences, Mathematics Skills, Family Income, Academic Aspiration, Grade 8, High School Graduates, School Choice, Institutional Characteristics, Student Characteristics

National Center for Education Statistics. Available from: ED Pubs. P.O. Box 1398, Jessup, MD 20794-1398. Tel: 877-433-7827; Web site:

Autor: Scott, Leslie A.; Ingels, Steven J.


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