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This study seeks assess how the uncertainties associated with the un-derlying biophysical processes inuence the optimal profile of land useover the next century, in light of potential irreversibility in these deci-sions. Our analysis is based on a dynamic stochastic model of globalland use, and employs 3 modeling scenarios constructed using global cropsimulation and climate models. The results of the deterministic modelshow that climate impacts appear to have mixed effects on yields - highertemperatures hurt food production but this effect is partially offset bygreater CO2 fertilization effect. Declining food crop yields result in rela-tively small expansion of cropland and accumulated GHG emissions fromland use change. We then contrast this optimal path to that obtainedwhen the uncertainty is not ignored, thereby demonstrating significanceof factoring uncertainty in the optimization stage.

Keywords: climate change ; crop yields ; dynamic stochastic models ; global land use ; uncertainty

Subject(s): Crop Production/Industries

Land Economics/Use

Research Methods/ Statistical Methods

Issue Date: 2013-06

Publication Type: Conference Paper/ Presentation

PURL Identifier: http://purl.umn.edu/151413

Total Pages: 31

JEL Codes: C61; Q15; Q23; Q26; Q40; Q54

Record appears in: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association (AAEA) > 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C.

Autor: Steinbuks, J. ; Cai, Y. ; Elliott, J.W. ; Hertel, Thomas W. ; Judd, K.L.

Fuente: http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/151413?ln=en

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