Spatio-temporal Risk and Severity Analysis of Soybean Rust in the United States Report as inadecuate

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Soybean rust is a highly mobile infectious disease and can be transmitted across short and long distances. Soybean rust is estimated to cause yield losses that can range between 1%-25%. An analysis of spatio-temporal infection risks within the United States is performed through the use of a unique data set. Observations from over 35,000 field-level inspections between 2005 and 2007 are used to conduct a county-level analysis. Statistical inferences are derived by employing zero-inflated Poisson and negative binomial models. In addition, the model is adjusted to account for potential endogeneity between inspections and soybean rust finds. Past soybean rust finds and inspections in the county and in the surrounding counties, weather and overwintering conditions, and plant maturity groups and planting dates are all found to be significant factors determining soybean rust. These results are then used to accordingly price annual insurance contracts or indemnification programs that cover soybean rust damages.

Keywords: Insurance contracts ; risk analysis ; soybean rust ; zero-inflated model

Subject(s): Crop Production/Industries

Risk and Uncertainty

Issue Date: 2008

Publication Type: Journal Article

PURL Identifier: Published in: Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Volume 33, Number 3 Page range: 311-331

Total Pages: 21

Record appears in: Western Agricultural Economics Association > Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics

Author: Bekkerman, Anton ; Goodwin, Barry K. ; Piggott, Nicholas E.


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