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Regional Educational Laboratory Midwest

In partnership with the Midwest Dropout Prevention Research Alliance the study team used student-level data and a five-step process to identify the most accurate indicators of students' failure to graduate from high school on time. Student-level data came from attendance records, transcripts, and discipline records of grade 8 and 9 students in three Ohio school districts. The study found that the most accurate early warning indicators of students being off track for graduating on time vary by school district and grade level. Overall, the most accurate indicators in both grades were based on coursework (grade point average and number of credits earned). On average, indicators were more accurate in grade 9 than in grade 8. Other districts may be able to use the methods described in this report to identify early warning indicators for their grade 8 and 9 students. Two appendices are included: (1) Literature Review; and (2) Student samples, data elements, and methodology.

Descriptors: High School Students, Academic Failure, Educational Indicators, Predictor Variables, Graduation, School Districts, Grade Point Average, Credits, Accuracy, Grade 8, Grade 9, Dropout Prevention, High School Freshmen, Attendance Patterns, Regression (Statistics)

Regional Educational Laboratory Midwest. Available from: Institute of Education Sciences. 555 New Jersey Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20208. Tel: 800-872-5327; Web site:

Autor: Stuit, David; O-Cummings, Mindee; Norbury, Heather; Heppen, Jessica; Dhillon, Sonica; Lindsay, Jim; Zhu, Bo


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