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By using the data concerning China's urban-rural residents' income gap from 1978 to 2010, this paper mainly researches the application of several kinds of models in predicting China's urban-rural residents' income gap. By conducting empirical analysis, we establish ARIMA prediction model, grey prediction model and quadratic-polynomial prediction model and conduct accuracy comparison. The results show that quadratic-polynomialprediction model has excellent fitting effect. By using quadratic- polynomial prediction model, this paper conducts prediction on trend of China's urban-rural residents' income gap from 2011 to 2013, and the prediction value of income gap of urban-rural residents in China from 2011 to 2013 is 14 173.20, 15 212.92 and 16 289.67 yuan respectively. Finally, on the basis of analysis, corresponding countermeasures are put forward, in order to provide scientific basis for energy planning and policy formulation: first, strengthen governments function of public service, coordinate resources, and strive to provide an equal opportunity of development for social members, so as to promote people's welfare and promote social equality; second, breach industrial monopoly and bridge income gap between employees in monopoly industry and general industry; last but not the least, support, encourage and call for government to establish social relief fund, adjust residents' income distribution from the non-governmental perspective, and endeavor to promote the income level of low-income class.

Keywords: Urban-rural residents’ income gap ; ARIMA model ; Grey prediction model ; Quadratic- polynomial model ; China

Subject(s): Agribusiness

Issue Date: 2011-05

Publication Type: Journal Article

PURL Identifier: Published in: Asian Agricultural Research, Volume 03, Issue 05 Page range: 88-95

Total Pages: 5

Record appears in: USA-China Science and Culture Media Corporation > Asian Agricultural Research

Autor: Tu, Xiong-ling


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