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The negotiations on a deep and comprehensive free trade agreement (FTA) between Ukraineand the EU are currently in process. Such a FTA can be expected to imply opportunities aswell as challenges for agricultural markets. This paper provides a model-based quantitativeassessment of the potential impacts of a FTA on agricultural commodity markets in the EUand Ukraine.For the quantitative analysis the dynamic, partial equilibrium model AGLINK-COSIMO hasbeen adapted and applied. The modules for the EU and Ukraine have been extracted from theglobal model and prepared to run together. Thus, the focus is on the bilateral trade positionsand not on the effect on other countries. The simulation of a FTA between the EU andUkraine was done through the elimination of import tariffs for main agricultural commodities.Results of the simulation indicate a positive change in producer revenue of 393 million € inUkraine and of 860 million € in the EU. Thus, this FTA entails opportunities for theagricultural sectors of both trading partners. However, gains from a FTA are not distributedhomogeneously and vary significantly among commodities.

Keywords: Ukraine ; EU ; Free Trade Agreement (FTA) ; Agricultural Markets ; AGLINK-COSIMO

Subject(s): International Relations/Trade

Issue Date: Sep 02 2011

Publication Type: Conference Paper/ Presentation

PURL Identifier: http://purl.umn.edu/114616 Page range: 1-12

Total Pages: 13

Record appears in: European Association of Agricultural Economists (EAAE) > 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland





Autor: Nekhay, Olexandr ; Gay, Stephan Hubertus ; Fellmann, Thomas

Fuente: http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/114616?ln=en







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