Preference Erosion Effects of Multilateral and Regional Trade Liberalisation: Simulating the EUs Trade Agreements with Mediterranean Countries Reportar como inadecuado




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Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) have widely spread in recentyears. The World Trade Organisation (WTO) notes that 546 RTAs were notifiedby January 2013, whereas only 380 were notified by 2007. RTAs have beenconsidered as a stumbling block for the slow progress of the WTO Doha Round,and multilateral liberalisation is said to cause erosion of preferences enjoyedunder bilateralism. That is, third country exporters that benefit from multilateraltrade liberalization increase their exports, whereas the preferential suppliersin bilateral trade agreements face a decrease of their exports, given thesubstitutability between export products from different countries. Preferenceerosion also occurs when countries take up new bilateral trade agreements thatcan result in “old” trade partner countries losing their preferential treatment. TheEuropean Union (EU) has granted preferential market access to a large numberof countries and is by far the main trading partner of its neighbouring countries,including Mediterranean partner countries (MED countries). Following theAssociation Agreements with the EU, there have been efforts of enhancedengagement and co-operation, especially after the Arab spring developments, butnegotiations for so called free and comprehensive trade agreements (DCFTAs)are also under way with other partner countries. The objective of this paper is tolook into possible preference erosion effects from the perspective of MEDcountries by depicting recent EU trade agreements as well as multilateral tradeliberalisation in a simulation analysis. We apply the MAGNET (ModularApplied General Equilibrium Tool) model that builds upon the GTAP (GlobalTrade Analysis Project) model in a recursive dynamic general equilibriumframework, with a reference scenario that reflects the economic and populationgrowth paths via most recent projections taken from the literature.

Keywords: preference erosion ; Mediterranean partner countries ; tradeliberalisation ; DCFTAs ; CGE modelling

Subject(s): Agribusiness

Agricultural and Food Policy

International Relations/Trade

Issue Date: 2013-08

Publication Type: Conference Paper/ Presentation

PURL Identifier: http://purl.umn.edu/160394

Total Pages: 18

Record appears in: European Association of Agricultural Economists (EAAE) > 135th Seminar, August 28-30, 2013, Belgrade, Serbia





Autor: Rau, Mari-Luise ; Aikaterini, Kavallari

Fuente: http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/160394?ln=en







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