Predictive performance of the World Banks commodity price projections Reportar como inadecuado




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The World Bank's commodity price projections are widely used for various planning purposes. Twoaspects of the Bank's projections of relative prices are studied in this paper. The first is whether theforecasts make efficient use of the information available at the time the forecast is made. The secondJS whether the forecasts predict future prices with greater accuracy than alternative forecasting methods.These matters are studied by comparing the World Bank's past price projections with the actualprices that were subsequently observed. The results show that, overall, the World Bank forecasts donot pass either test. First, the World Bank forecasts are informationally inefficient. Prediction error(projection minus actual price) tends to be positively correlated with the projections themselves.Although the direction of future price movements tends to be correctly predicted, the magnitude ofthese movements tends to be overpredicted. Second, the World Bank forecasts do not perform welleven compared with the simplest of alternative forecasting methods - the prediction of no change.

Subject(s): Agribusiness

Demand and Price Analysis

Issue Date: 1990-12

Publication Type: Journal Article

PURL Identifier: http://purl.umn.edu/172567 Published in: Agricultural Economics: The Journal of the International Association of Agricultural Economists, Volume 04, Issue 3-4 Page range: 365-379

Total Pages: 16

Record appears in: International Association of Agricultural Economists (IAAE) > Agricultural Economics: The Journal of the International Association of Agricultural Economists





Autor: Warr, Peter G.

Fuente: http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/172567?ln=en







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