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The aim of this paper is to exploit grain price data to detect the warning signs of looming food crises in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. Firstly we identify which markets play a leading role at the national and regional level. The second step consists of identifying crisis periods and characterizing price movements during the period proceeding a crisis. This analysis leads to the identification of early warning indicators whose relevance is tested using panel data qualitative choice models. The results show that monitoring price movements on leading markets during crucial periods of the year can help in forecasting future crises.

Keywords: Food security ; Africa ; Niger ; early warning systems ; discrete choice panel model

Subject(s): Food Security and Poverty

Issue Date: 2011

Publication Type: Conference Paper/ Presentation

PURL Identifier: http://purl.umn.edu/114226

Total Pages: 13

JEL Codes: Q18; C25; D40; O18

Record appears in: European Association of Agricultural Economists (EAAE) > 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland





Autor: Araujo, Claudio ; Araujo-Bonjean, Catherine ; Brunelin, Stephanie

Fuente: http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/114226?ln=en







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