Modeling vaccination campaigns and the Fall-Winter 2009 activity of the new AH1N1 influenza in the Northern Hemisphere - Quantitative Biology > Populations and EvolutionReportar como inadecuado




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Abstract: The unfolding of pandemic influenza AH1N1 for Fall 2009 in the NorthernHemisphere is still uncertain. Plans for vaccination campaigns and vaccinetrials are underway, with the first batches expected to be available earlyOctober. Several studies point to the possibility of an anticipated pandemicpeak that could undermine the effectiveness of vaccination strategies. Here weuse a structured global epidemic and mobility metapopulation model to assessthe effectiveness of massive vaccination campaigns for the Fall-Winter 2009.Mitigation effects are explored depending on the interplay between thepredicted pandemic evolution and the expected delivery of vaccines. The modelis calibrated using recent estimates on the transmissibility of the new AH1N1influenza. Results show that if additional intervention strategies were notused to delay the time of pandemic peak, vaccination may not be able toconsiderably reduce the cumulative number of cases, even when the massvaccination campaign is started as early as mid-October. Prioritizedvaccination would be crucial in slowing down the pandemic evolution andreducing its burden.



Autor: Paolo Bajardi, Chiara Poletto, Duygu Balcan, Hao Hu, Bruno Goncalves, Jose J. Ramasco, Daniela Paolotti, Nicola Perra, Michele Ti

Fuente: https://arxiv.org/







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