Spatio-temporal analysis of malaria vector density from baseline through intervention in a high transmission settingReport as inadecuate

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Parasites and Vectors

, 9:637

First Online: 12 December 2016Received: 20 September 2016Accepted: 28 November 2016


BackgroundAn increase in effective malaria control since 2000 has contributed to a decline in global malaria morbidity and mortality. Knowing when and how existing interventions could be combined to maximise their impact on malaria vectors can provide valuable information for national malaria control programs in different malaria endemic settings. Here, we assess the effect of indoor residual spraying on malaria vector densities in a high malaria endemic setting in eastern Uganda as part of a cohort study where the use of long-lasting insecticidal nets LLINs was high.

MethodsAnopheles mosquitoes were sampled monthly using CDC light traps in 107 households selected randomly. Information on the use of malaria interventions in households was also gathered and recorded via a questionnaire. A Bayesian spatio-temporal model was then used to estimate mosquito densities adjusting for climatic and ecological variables and interventions.

ResultsAnopheles gambiae sensu lato were most abundant 89.1%; n = 119,008 compared to An. funestus sensu lato 10.1%, n = 13,529. Modelling results suggest that the addition of indoor residual spraying bendiocarb in an area with high coverage of permethrin-impregnated LLINs 99% was associated with a major decrease in mosquito vector densities. The impact on An. funestus s.l. Rate Ratio 0.1508; 97.5% CI: 0.0144–0.8495 was twice as great as for An. gambiae s.l. RR 0.5941; 97.5% CI: 0.1432–0.8577.

ConclusionsHigh coverage of active ingredients on walls depressed vector populations in intense malaria transmission settings. Sustained use of combined interventions would have a long-term impact on mosquito densities, limiting infectious biting.

KeywordsAnopheles Anopheles gambiae Indoor Residual Spraying Malaria Modelling AbbreviationsBICBayesian information criterion

CDCCentre for Disease Control


DHSDemographic health surveys

DICDeviance information criterion

EVIEnhanced vegetation index

GFGaussian field

GMPGlobal Malaria Programme

GMRFGaussian Markov random fields

GTSGlobal technical strategy

INLAIntegrated nested Laplace approximation

IRSIndoor residual spraying

LLINLong lasting insecticide net

MCMCMarkov chain Monte Carlo

MISMalaria indicator surveys

RMSERoot mean square error

SPDEStochastic partial differential equation

SSASub-Saharan Africa

WHOWorld Health Organization

Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article doi:10.1186-s13071-016-1917-3 contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

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Author: Victor A. Alegana - Simon P. Kigozi - Joaniter Nankabirwa - Emmanuel Arinaitwe - Ruth Kigozi - Henry Mawejje - Maxwell Ki


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