Early onset of industrial-era warming across the oceans and continentsReport as inadecuate

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1 ANU - Australian National University 2 University of Wollongong 3 University of Arizona 4 University of Maryland College Park 5 Northern Arizona University Flagstaff 6 University of Texas at Austin Austin 7 CSIC - Spanish National Research Council Madrid 8 UCL - Université Catholique de Louvain 9 University of New South Wales Sydney 10 Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Washington 11 University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science 12 Joint Institute for the Study of Atmosphere and ocean 13 AIMS - Australian Institute of Marine Science 14 USGS - U.S. Geological Survey 15 CEREGE - Centre européen de recherche et d-enseignement de géosciences de l-environnement 16 UAB - Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona Barcelona 17 Aarhus University Aarhus 18 BTP - Biogéochimie-Traceurs-Paléoclimat LOCEAN - Laboratoire d-Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques 19 State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science Xiamen University 20 Lund University Lund 21 OCCR - Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research 22 School of Earth Sciences Victoria 23 Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre 24 PAGES International Project Office

Abstract : The evolution of industrial-era warming across the continents and oceans provides a context for future climate changeand is important for determining climate sensitivity and the processes that control regional warming. Here we use postad1500 palaeoclimate records to show that sustained industrial-era warming of the tropical oceans first developed duringthe mid-nineteenth century and was nearly synchronous with Northern Hemisphere continental warming. The earlyonset of sustained, significant warming in palaeoclimate records and model simulations suggests that greenhouse forcingof industrial-era warming commenced as early as the mid-nineteenth century and included an enhanced equatorialocean response mechanism. The development of Southern Hemisphere warming is delayed in reconstructions, but thisapparent delay is not reproduced in climate simulations. Our findings imply that instrumental records are too shortto comprehensively assess anthropogenic climate change and that, in some regions, about 180 years of industrial-erawarming has already caused surface temperatures to emerge above pre-industrial values, even when taking naturalvariability into account.

Author: Nerilie Abram - Helen Mcgregor - Jessica Tierney - Michael Evans - Nicholas Mckay - Darrell Kaufman - Kaustubh Thirumalai - Belen

Source: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/


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