The relationship between fire behaviour measures and community loss: an exploratory analysis for developing a bushfire severity scaleReportar como inadecuado




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Natural Hazards

, Volume 63, Issue 2, pp 391–415

First Online: 10 April 2012Received: 29 November 2011Accepted: 19 March 2012

Abstract

Current fire danger scales do not adequately reflect the potential destructive force of a bushfire in Australia and, therefore, do not provide fire prone communities with an adequate warning for the potential loss of human life and property. To determine options for developing a bushfire severity scale based on community impact and whether a link exists between the energy release rate power of a fire and community loss, this paper reviewed observations of 79 wildfires from 1939 to 2009 across Victoria and other southern states of Australia. A methodology for estimating fire power based on fuel loading, fire size and progression rate is presented. McArthur’s existing fire danger indices FDIs as well as fuel- and slope-adjusted FDIs were calculated using fire weather data. Analysis of possible relationships between fire power, FDIs, rate of spread and Byram’s fireline intensity and community loss was performed using exposure as a covariate. Preliminary results showed that a stronger relationship exists between community loss and the power of the fire than between loss and FDI, although fuel-adjusted FDI was also a good predictor of loss. The database developed for this study and the relationships established are essential for undertaking future studies that require observations of past fire behaviour and losses and also to form the basis of developing a new severity scale.

KeywordsPower of fire Fire danger indices Community loss Fire danger rating system Fireline intensity Australia  Download fulltext PDF



Autor: Sarah Harris - Wendy Anderson - Musa Kilinc - Liam Fogarty

Fuente: https://link.springer.com/



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