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WMU Journal of Maritime Affairs

, 10:183

First Online: 16 August 2011Received: 15 December 2010Accepted: 25 July 2011

Abstract

Given the inherent complexity of the maritime transportation system, developing effective policy can be challenging. Using risk factors identified by an elicitation and aggregation of expert judgment, a relative-risk rating scheme was developed in the theory-building tradition of the social sciences. The model was empirically evaluated using 18 months of data from the US small passenger vessel sector. The model identified that the top 10% of relatively highest risk vessels accounted for 50% of all marine casualties during the period of examination. A policy for deploying the model nationally is proposed.

KeywordsRisk analysis Expert judgment Maritime domain Theory building Safety The views expressed were are those of the author and not those of the U.S. Coast Guard Academy or other branches of the U.S. government.

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Autor: Paul S. Szwed

Fuente: https://link.springer.com/







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