The potential spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus via dynamic contacts between poultry premises in Great BritainReportar como inadecuado

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BMC Veterinary Research

, 7:59

First Online: 13 October 2011Received: 04 November 2010Accepted: 13 October 2011


BackgroundHighly pathogenic avian influenza HPAI viruses have had devastating effects on poultry industries worldwide, and there is concern about the potential for HPAI outbreaks in the poultry industry in Great Britain GB. Critical to the potential for HPAI to spread between poultry premises are the connections made between farms by movements related to human activity. Movement records of catching teams and slaughterhouse vehicles were obtained from a large catching company, and these data were used in a simulation model of HPAI spread between farms serviced by the catching company, and surrounding geographic areas. The spread of HPAI through real-time movements was modelled, with the addition of spread via company personnel and local transmission.

ResultsThe model predicted that although large outbreaks are rare, they may occur, with long distances between infected premises. Final outbreak size was most sensitive to the probability of spread via slaughterhouse-linked movements whereas the probability of onward spread beyond an index premises was most sensitive to the frequency of company personnel movements.

ConclusionsResults obtained from this study show that, whilst there is the possibility that HPAI virus will jump from one cluster of farms to another, movements made by catching teams connected fewer poultry premises in an outbreak situation than slaughterhouses and company personnel. The potential connection of a large number of infected farms, however, highlights the importance of retaining up-to-date data on poultry premises so that control measures can be effectively prioritised in an outbreak situation.

Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article doi:10.1186-1746-6148-7-59 contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

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Autor: Jennifer E Dent - Istvan Z Kiss - Rowland R Kao - Mark Arnold


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