The Consistency of Modeled and Observed Temperature Trends in the Tropical Troposphere: A Comment on Santer et al 2008 - Statistics > ApplicationsReportar como inadecuado




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Abstract: Santer et al 2008 S08 compared climate models and observations in thetropical troposphere and reported that -there is no longer a seriousdiscrepancy between modeled and observed trends in tropical lapse rates.- Theyfound no statistically significant differences between modeled ensemble meantrends and observed trends at the T2LT and T2 layers, and they found nosignificant difference between observed and modeled surface-minus-tropospherelapse rates. However they only used data over the 1979-1999 period. Using theS08 methodology on up-to-date data, we find a statistically significantdiscrepancy between observations and models with respect to trends in the UAHdata, as well as lapse rate trends comparing either RSS or UAH to the HADCRUT3vland-ocean surface trend.



Autor: Stephen McIntyre Climate Audit, Ross McKitrick University of Guelph

Fuente: https://arxiv.org/







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