ERIC ED112166: Occupational Shortages Reporting System, Forecasting Model and Correlation Analysis.Reportar como inadecuado




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The report presents a computer model for forecasting occupational shortages into the near future based on occupational data reported monthly by the Texas Employment Commission for the period January 1970 to July 1975 and on job openings listed in classified want ads from September 1974 to July 1975. The report describes the methodology of the occup

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Introducción



DOCUMENT RESUME CE 004 986 ED 112 166 AUTHOR TITLE INSTITUTION PUB DATE NOTE Park, Theresa Occupational Shortages Reporting System, Forecasting Model and Correlation Analysis. Texas State Technical Inst., Waco. Jul 75 134p.; Revision of ED 106 486 EDRS PRICE DESCRIPTORS MF-$0.76 HC-$6.97 Plus Postage *Computer Programs; Data Analysis; Employment Patterns; *Employment Projections; *Employment Trends; Job Market; Labor Market; *Mathematical Models; Prediction; Predictive Validity; Technical Education; *Technical Occupations; Vocational Education IDENTIFIERS Texas ABSTRACT The report presents a computer model for forecasting occupational shortages into the near future based on occupational data reported monthly by the Texas Employment Commission for the period January 1970 to July 1975 and on job openings listed in classified want ads frcm September 1974 to July 1975.
The report describes the methodology of the occupational shortages forecasting model and the equations used in the model (least squares method), and describes the features of the computer program with respect to input requirements, computing sequence, and output descriptions.
The model predicts occupational shortages by extrapolations of the calculated linear forecasting equations which approximate the nonlinear occupational data.
The correlation analysis which shows (1) how well the forecasting line represents the actual data points and (2) the reliability of the prediction is also included.
Appendix A of the report (78 pages) presents computer graphical representations of the forecasting model as it applies to 76 technical occupational areas covered in the various departmental course offerings of the James Connally Campus of Texas State Technical Institute.
Appendix B,(eight pages) provides the computer program of the forecasting model. (JR) *********************************************************************** Documents acquired by ERIC include many informal unpublished * materials nct avai...






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